Home run props are one of the most popular among all MLB props. The home run is the king of baseball stats and betting on a player to hit one adds a ton of excitement to games that bettors are watching. If you haven’t bet on home run props yet, you might want to jump on the bandwagon. There is money to be made!
Betting on home run props starts with a plan. One such plan involves a projection-based strategy for betting on home run props. What you will need to do is become familiar with a number of statistics. These stats involve both hitters and pitchers.
We asked our expert handicappers for their advice on betting these home run props. Here is what they came up with.
Betting Home Run Props – HR vs. xHR
It only makes sense to look at the number of home runs a player has hit prior to a given game. Take Aaron Judge of the Yankees as an example. He’s been hot lately, hitting at least one dinger in 5 of his last 8 games. That’s something worth knowing when betting on home run props.
Another key stat is expected home runs, aka xHR. Expected home runs are calculated by giving hitters credit for balls hit that would have cleared the fence in another ballpark. For example, we all know Coors Field is a hitter’s park. T-Mobile Park and Citi Field are pitcher’s parks. Fewer home runs are hit in those stadiums.
Judge has hit 18 homers this season, but his xHR number is 19.2. We could expect Judge to continue his recent success of hitting home runs. On the other end, Houston’s Kyle Tucker also has 18 homers, but his xHR number is 13.1. He is likely due for some regression. These numbers can help when betting on home run props.
Pitching Stats for Home Run Props
We can get the same numbers – home runs vs. expected home runs – for pitchers. Some pitchers give up more homers than others. Currently, the Padres Michael King has allowed 13 home runs in 11 starts this season. King will pitch on Sunday in Kansas City. Our experts will be looking at the matchups between King and the Royals’ hitters.
Pitchers like Patrick Corbin and Logan Allen have relatively high xHR numbers. Corbin has allowed 9 homers this season and Allen has given up 12. Another stat to check when betting on home run props is home run rate. This is the number of home runs divided by fly balls allowed by a pitcher. Allen and King have the highest HR rate in the majors – 4.6 percent.
Cappers Rack Up the Wins
Another day, more wins at the ticket window. Knup Sports and the ‘Ole Uncle Sal Lombardi were cashing tickets at their local ATM, aka sportsbook last night. Knup was our overall leader yesterday with Sal not too far behind.
We had a couple more impressive performances as well yesterday with our top 37 handicappers posting positive profits for the day. Mike Hawk is our top MLB capper right now. He may have some home run props. You’ll have to check the members’ area.
Here’s how our top guys did yesterday.
- Knup, Knup, and away: Our friends at Knup Sports went 7-1 on eight picks yesterday. The result was $601 in profits added to the bankroll. Nice effort!
- Winning: Uncle Sal is like Charlie Sheen…winning! Sal hit on 8 of his 12 picks yesterday and walked home with $480. Sal nailed both the Mavs on the moneyline and the game total going Over last night in the NBA. Look up Sal when the NBA Finals start.
- He’s Ricci: Tonny Ricci is getting richer by the minute. Yesterday, he cashed all three of his bets to win $300. He is our No. 1 handicapper over the last seven days with $1138 in profits. Tonny is among the Top 3 in both NBA and MLB winnings over the last week.
- Great Scott: Scott’s Picks has been one of our more consistent handicappers over the last few weeks. He was at it again yesterday with a 3-0 day and $325 in winnings. Scott’s Picks are up $1125 for the last 30 days.
- Crazy Greek: Pavlos Laguretos is a soccer capper who comes to us from WagerTalk. He had one pick – it was on the Draw at +307 – and it cashed. That’s the easy way to win $307!
MUST READ: USING BETTING TRENDS FOR GREATER SUCCESS
Mavs Move On
The NBA’s Western Conference finals came to close last night with a brilliant performance from one of the league’s stars. Another MLB starting pitcher is probably headed for the injured list and one NHL team in the Eastern Conference is one game closer to the Stanley Cup Finals.
Let’s recap yesterday’s sports.
- Dallas to the finals: Luka Doncic put on a show, scored 36 points, and the Dallas Mavericks advanced to the NBA Finals by beating Minnesota 124-103. It will be Dallas and Boston for the NBA title. Game 1 is set for Thursday, June 6, in Boston.
- Gallen leaves: Arizona ace Zac Gallen threw six pitches last night, then left the game with hamstring soreness. Gallen is 5-4 with a 3.12 ERA so far this season. He could go on the 10-day IL. The DBacks already have Merrill Kelly (2-0, 2.19 ERA in four starts this season) on the 60-day IL.
- Panthers on the verge: Florida beat the New York Rangers 3-2 last night in Madison Square Garden to take a 3-2 series lead. Game 6 will be in Florida tomorrow night. Game time is 8:00 p.m. The Panthers are a -175 favorite.
Working for the Weekend
As the great Canadian rock and rollers Loverboy once said, “everybody’s working for the weekend.” That is absolutely true in the sports betting world. It’s Friday and there is no NBA game on the schedule. There is a full MLB card though, which means bettors still have tons of opportunities to cash in today.
As we get ready for the weekend, here is today’s schedule.
- Friday baseball: The Braves World Series odds continue to drop as they lost again last night to Washington. The Braves have lost 5 of their last 7 games. Atlanta will host Oakland tonight for Game 1 of a three-game series. It’s a full schedule today with 15 games on tap. Judge and the Yankees face the Giants. Judge’s home run props odds are +320 to hit one.
- NHL: It’s Game 5 in the Western Conference finals. The series heads back to Dallas all tied up at 2-2. The Stars won Game 4 in Edmonton and are favored to win tonight. Game 6 is set for Sunday night in Edmonton.
- WNBA: There are four games on tonight’s schedule. Caitlin Clark and Indiana lost again last night to drop to 1-8. WNBA leader Connecticut is 6-0 and plays Dallas (3-2) tonight. Game time is 7:00 p.m.
- Golf: The RBC Canadian Open continues today with Round 2. David Skinns shot a blistering 62 in Round 1 yesterday to start today’s second round atop the leaderboard. Favorite Rory McIlroy shot a 66 in the first round. He tees off this afternoon.
- Tennis: It’s Round 3 today at Roland Garros in the 2024 French Open. No. 1 women’s seed Iga Swiatek has already won her third round match. Men’s No. 2 seed Jannick Sinner won his third round match earlier today. No. 3 seed Carlos Alcaraz plays this afternoon. His opponent is Sebastian Korda.
- Soccer: There are matches all over the world today, though not many from any one league. There are two international friendlies: Mexico-Bolivia and Costa Rica-Uruguay. There is another women’s international friendly as well – Costa Rica vs. Argentina. There is also one MLS match on the schedule. New York City FC will play the San Jose Earthquakes ahead of tomorrow’s full MLS schedule.