Using betting trends for greater success makes sense for bettors.
Key Points
– Betting trends can help bettors achieve more success.
– Recognizing trends and using them correctly is a key to betting success.
Using Betting Trends for Greater Success
One of the things that sports bettors can use to help them make strong betting decisions are trends. Teams get hot. Sometimes, they go cold. NHL goalies go through periods where they are a brick wall. Other times, they look like Swiss cheese.
NBA shooters get hot. NFL defenses tighten up and don’t allow a lot of points. Each of these examples is a trend that a bettor can use to his advantage.
That doesn’t mean all trends should be used to make betting decisions. However, it’s worth examining a trend to determine whether or not it will have an impact on the outcome of an event.
How can bettors make sense of using betting trends for greater success?
What to Watch in the NFL
Like any of the major professional sports, the NFL is full of trends – first half trends, for example – that bettors should be aware of before placing their wagers. One of more prominent trends involves teams in the same division and identifying it can help win more football bets.
The way the NFL schedule works, teams in a division play each other twice in a season. One game is at home and the other is on the road. Over time, playing teams twice each season breeds some familiarity. This is usually an advantage for an underdog.
Because home teams are typically overvalued even in the NFL, the road underdog is worth considering in some situations. One of the best is the road underdog playing a division opponent. NFL bettors should know that road underdogs have covered the spread nearly 55 percent of the time over the past few seasons.
Another NFL trend involves rookie quarterbacks. It usually pays to fade a rookie quarterback in the NFL. Since 2013, rookie signal callers are 117-213-2 straight up and 156-171-4 ATS (47.7%). When considering a game with a rookie starting quarterback, it pays to know this trend before making a final decision.
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College Football Championship Games
When betting on college football, bettors should be aware of the trend with conference championship games. Since 2005, betting the underdog in one of these games has been a very strong play.
In conference title games in this time period, underdogs are 57-49-3 (53.8%). True home and road underdogs have an even higher winning percentage going 22-12 ATS. Most conference championships are played at a neutral site where the underdogs are a much less favorable 35-37-3 ATS.
Not all of these underdogs are created equal. It’s worth a deeper look at an underdog of +7 or higher. Since 2005, dogs in this category are 29-21 ATS.
Unranked teams have also done well in the role of conference championship underdog. They are 14-6 ATS in 20 title games and have covered by an average of 9.45 points. The best conference underdogs have come in the MAC where they are 11-4-1 in 16 championship games.
College football bettors should also take note of game totals in these conference title games. Since 2005, the Under has a slight edge at 55-53-1. Breaking it down though, bettors will find that title games with a total of 45 or less have gone Over more than 75 percent of the time.
Conference championship games with a total of 65 and above have gone Under in 14 of 23 such games. The conference with the highest Over percentage is the SEC (11-4) which usually has some of the country’s best defenses.
NBA Betting Trends Worth Noting
When betting NBA totals, there are a few key stats to look at before making a wager. One of those is pace. Teams that play at faster/slower paces have a direct impact on a game’s total.
There have been NBA teams that don’t shoot all that well, but they repeatedly rank among the highest-scoring teams in the league. That’s because they play an up-tempo type of offense. Knowing this, along with some other factors, can help an NBA bettor have more success.
Take the case of the Boston Celtics. In their most recent season, the Celtics held the No. 1 ranking in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They repeatedly held teams to scores in the 90s and low 100s. That was usually reflected in a low posted game total, but their defensive efficiency rating paired with their pace numbers helped bettors make a decision on a total. Boston had one of the highest Under percentages in the league that season.
Reading the Numbers
In all sports, bettors that can “read the numbers” can recognize trends in sharp money. These trends are difficult to spot, but identifying them can lead to serious betting success.
Take an NFL game as an example. The Tennessee Titans are a -10 favorite over division rival Houston. Bettors see that 80 percent of the bets are coming in on Tennessee. That makes sense as they are a large NFL favorite.
Then, the line moves to Tennessee -9. That doesn’t make sense and is a likely cue that sharp money has come in on Houston. Smart bettors that can recognize this quickly will go out and hunt for sportsbooks still carrying Houston at +10.
This is an example of reverse line movement. With today’s technology like the new Sports Hub, there are a number of ways to find these sharp money moves. Bettors that find them and act fast enough can benefit from this unique trend.