Cal Raleigh Rockets to the Top of the AL MVP Race

Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh has surged past Aaron Judge to become the new American League MVP frontrunner, an ascent fueled by a power binge that now stands at forty‑one home runs. His recent back‑to‑back blasts opened daylight in the league’s home‑run race and signaled a sharp swing in the award conversation just as Judge landed on the injured list.

A Historic Pace at the Plate

Raleigh’s forty‑one homers are already seven more than his previous career high and tie Todd Hundley’s 1996 mark for the most in a single season by a switch‑hitting catcher. The damage is not limited to the long ball: by driving in eighty‑six runs he has overtaken Judge for the American League RBI lead and now trails only Eugenio Suarez for the major‑league crown. Since the first week of June, Raleigh has paired prodigious power with a slugging percentage approaching .600, supplying the kind of momentum voters remember when ballots are cast.

Judge Heads to the Injured List

Aaron Judge had ruled the MVP odds boards for most of the year on the strength of a .342 average, a .449 on‑base percentage and a league‑best .711 slugging mark. Everything changed when he experienced discomfort during last week’s series in Toronto and subsequent tests revealed a flexor strain—thankfully with no UCL damage. The Yankees have not issued a firm timetable, but even a short absence in late July hands Raleigh an opportunity to build a resume that might become insurmountable.

Sportsbooks React to the Shift

Oddsmakers moved swiftly once Judge’s injury news broke. DraftKings and BetMGM each list Raleigh as a minus‑money favorite near –130, marking his first appearance in that role all season. Judge, now hovering a tick above even money, remains the clear challenger, while Detroit’s Tarik Skubal sits a distant third at roughly 40‑to‑1. Bettors have followed the numbers: Raleigh accounts for more than a quarter of all money wagered in the AL MVP market at BetMGM, making him the book’s largest liability, whereas Bobby Witt Jr. has drawn the most individual tickets despite much longer odds.

Momentum Factors to Monitor

Several variables could still tighten or widen the gap. Seattle begins a six‑game road swing through hitter‑friendly venues that could pad Raleigh’s counting stats. Conversely, a quick rehab for Judge would reintroduce his triple‑slash dominance to the discussion. A surge from ace pitchers like Skubal or Corbin Burnes could also complicate the narrative if either carries his club down the stretch. Team context matters as well: the Mariners are climbing the AL West standings, and a postseason push would amplify Raleigh’s candidacy just as a Yankees slide could dim Judge’s.

The Key Question Moving Forward

If Raleigh continues to rake while Judge rehabs, the race might turn from a sprint into a comfortable jog for the Mariners’ slugger. Yet baseball seasons rarely follow linear scripts. A scorching month from Judge, a slump from Raleigh, or a breakout by an unexpected contender could reshape the landscape once more before ballots are finalized. For now, though, Cal Raleigh owns the inside lane to the American League’s most prestigious individual award.