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Two players are competing for a basketball during the NBA Finals Game 4, with promotional text highlighting the preview.

NBA Finals Game 4: Preview, Props & Prediction

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Series Context

The Indiana Pacers hold a 2–1 edge in the Finals, having led in every series this postseason. Head coach Rick Carlisle stresses the need to “maintain that killer edge” as underdogs in every game. Oklahoma City, down 2–1 for the second time this playoffs, remains composed under coach Mark Daigneault’s mantra: “You have to compete when the ball goes up in the air.”

  • Spread: Thunder are 6-point favorites in Game 4
  • Money-line: Thunder –250 / Pacers +200
  • Totals: 226.5 points (84% of money on the over)
  • Pacers have drawn 72% of spread bets at BetRivers; Thunder have 55% at BetMGM
  • Every past seven Finals Game 4s have gone under, yet the public is backing the over heavily

For deeper insight on point spreads and totals in high-stakes matchups, see Sportshub’s Guide to NBA Betting Strategies and Betting NBA Totals.

Key Stats

  • Fourth-Quarter Domination: Pacers have outscored OKC 67–43 in the final period of their two wins
  • Road Resilience: Thunder have won eight consecutive games following a loss this season
  • First-Half Success: Home team has won the first half in each of Indiana’s past 11 games

Prop Picks

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 24.5 Points (–590 at BetRivers)
    • He’s topped 24 points in 15 of 19 postseason games, and needs just 25 in 4th to cover.
  • Luguentz Dort Under 13.5 P/R/A (–105 at BetMGM)
    • Averaging 14.0 combined in the series but held to 12 in Game 3; look for another tighter role.

For more on finding edge in player props, consult Sportshub’s Basketball Betting Options: Decide Where to Put Your Money.

Key to the Game

Oklahoma City’s defense must snap back after allowing 51.8% shooting in Game 3. As Jalen Williams noted, “Defensively locking in on a lot of the little things” will be vital to stifle Indiana’s late runs.

Injury Report

  • Pacers: Myles Turner (illness) sat out practice but remains questionable.
  • Thunder: Full health report; expect the same lineup that battled in Game 3.

What They’re Saying

“Anything less than a total grit mindset, we just don’t have a chance.”
— Rick Carlisle, Pacers coach

“Dragging past emotions into the next experience isn’t going to help anybody.”
— Mark Daigneault, Thunder coach

Prediction

The Thunder have thrived on the road after losses all season and must protect home court now. Expect OKC’s defense to tighten in the fourth quarter and SGA to deliver another 25+ point night.
Final Score: Thunder 115, Pacers 109