There are a number of ways to win more late season MLB bets.
Key Points
– Assess your betting strategy to win more late season MLB bets.
– To win more late season MLB bets, focus on a certain underdog.
Win More Late Season MLB Bets
Betting on football, specifically the NFL, is the king of sports betting. However, when the NFL season begins each year, it means that the current MLB season is winding down.
Wouldn’t any bettor like to win more late season MLB bets? If you haven’t done well betting on baseball this season, don’t worry. You can make up for it with a strong late season push.
Winning more MLB bets requires a few things. The first, of course, is a plan and that plan should include some simple baseball betting tips.
Assess Your Baseball Betting Strategy
Whether you are off to a great MLB start or not, you should take the time to assess your strategy. Money management is an easy one to follow. Stay disciplined and stick to your unit sizes.
Shopping for the best line is another simple strategy that too many MLB bettors do not subscribe to. Using MLB picks is another way to win more. Two more strategies that we will address in more detail involve staying away from big favorites and taking advantage of plus money underdogs.
Whatever strategy or strategies you employ, keep assessing them throughout the season to maximize your wins.
Why Avoid Big MLB Favorites
If you want to win more MLB late season bets, you have to stay away from the big favorites. Teams like the Dodgers and Yankees tend to be listed as big favorites a lot. Not only are they usually good, the betting public loves them. Oddsmakers know that shade lines accordingly.
The problem with that is bettors will blindly bet on the Dodgers at say -185. The bigger problem is that when you continually bet on big favorites, you lose big. Since 2005 favorites of -150 or greater have won 63 percent of the time.
That might sound great, remember at -150 you are spending $150 to win $100…and you lose 37 percent of the time. In the long run, you are going to be down several hundred units.
While betting on a big favorite can indeed produce wins, doing so consistently will put you in the red very quickly.
ICYMI: USING BETTING TRENDS FOR GREATER SUCCESS
Bet Against the Public
One strategy worth a long look is betting against the public. Keep in mind that the public loses a lot. That’s why so many sportsbooks are in business.
The betting public loves winners, Overs, and home teams. They also tend to have a bias toward what teams have done most recently. Again, oddsmakers know this and build that into their numbers.
When you target MLB bets against the public, you can take advantage of skewed numbers. It’s also a situation where the bettor – you – puts himself on the side of the sportsbook. Sportsbooks win more often than they lose.
Win More MLB Bets – Focus on Underdogs
Looking for strong underdogs when betting on MLB is one of the keys to a strong baseball bankroll. Hitting a couple MLB moneyline underdogs will allow bettors to come out ahead even if their winning percentage is below 50 percent. One underdog in particular is typically a better bet than any other – the divisional underdog.
Each season, teams in a division play each other 19 times. That leads to some familiarity. Hitters will see the same pitchers a couple times in season. Seeing a team that many times in a season helps to give an underdog an advantage.
Bettors can actually break this down even further and focus on road divisional underdogs. Remember, the public likes to overvalue home teams. Bettors can also look for a road divisional underdog with a total of 8.5 or higher. With more runs expected, oddsmakers see the underdog contributing to the total. That favors the dog.
Late in an MLB season, there will be some divisional series that can greatly impact the postseason. Keep an eye on these games as a road divisional underdog may have even more incentive to win, or at least keep a game close.
Win More MLB Bets – The Elements
In both early and late season games, the weather can create some havoc. There will be rainouts as well as games played in snowy conditions. However, the big weather element to look for is the wind.
Wind speeds of 5 mph or greater have the tendency to affect MLB games. When winds are blowing 5 mph or higher and in from the outfield, more game totals tend to go Under. Long fly balls get held up and turn into outs instead of home runs and long base hits. Since 2005, in games with wind speeds of 5 mph blowing in, the Under has hit over 55 percent of the time.
Late in an MLB season, it is worth checking the winds coming off of Lake Michigan before a game at Chicago’s Wrigley Field. There’s a reason why Chicago is called the Windy City. Since 2005 in games with a 5 mph wind or higher blowing in and a total of 8 or more, the Under has hit in about 63 percent of all games.
The opposite is true too although wind speeds need to be just a bit higher. Games with wind speeds of 8 mph and higher blowing out from home plate result in more Over. Since 2005, games with this condition have gone Over roughly 53 percent of the time.
Go Back to the Basics
When all else fails, go back to the basics. If you have assessed and re-assessed your MLB betting strategy and you aren’t getting the results you want, remember your basics.
Getting a divisional underdog at +150 instead of +140 is a big deal and will add up when you win. Continue to shop for the best possible lines on the games you like.
If you find yourself in a huge slump, professional handicapping picks might be an alternative too. You can find picks to help you win more MLB bets, including player props and other specials.
Stay disciplined with your bankroll and stick to your rules. Avoid parlays and teasers as a way to chase losses. Let the public chase losses and get sucked into big payouts. Stick to your plan and let it work for you.