FL Outside Impact Considerations
NFL betting tips. American Football is one of the most popular and most entertaining sports to watch in the world. The National Football League (NFL) is the home of the top athletes in the world regarding power and speed. Naturally, NFL games attract a lot of media attention and a lot of sports betting action. For years now, the NFL is the biggest show in sports betting. One of the reasons why this happens is because the NFL is becoming very popular outside the
United States, and more people outside US soil is betting on NFL games. No doubt, the popularity and tips of NFL sports betting will continue to rise in the next years.
Is it hard to bet on the NFL and earn money? Well, like in every US sport, there are pros and cons regarding sports betting. In the NFL, in particular, several factors can impact your betting journey. The season is a bit short (from September to February). The schedule is brutal for players, and the market reacts rather fast. So, to be successful NFL bettor you need to be at the top of your game constantly for six months.
?Available markets in NFL betting
Every single NFL game has three basic bet types: 1. Money Line (betting on who will win the game). 2. Handicap (also known as “The Spread”). 3. Totals (bet on how many points in total will be scored by both teams in the game).
Except for those basic markets, there are several alternative NFL betting markets where punters can also bet (halftime, quarter markets, etc.).
Those are variations of basic markets where punters can bet on the same basic bet types. But instead, to punt the end of the game result, they predict outcomes after each quarter or at halftime.
Also, there are markets where punters can be on individual performances from players, passing or rushing yards, number of tackles, or sacks and so on.
Not to mention that there are parlays, teasers, props, and many more advanced betting types. More about those kinds of bets we will write in some other article.
Many selections can sometimes be a bit confusing to novice punters. Still, overall if you want to be profitable betting on NFL, you will need to have a good strategy, high level of discipline, and you will need to build the edge against the sportsbooks and their lines. And that is the hardest part of being a successful bettor on the NFL.
?How important are outside factors in the NFL?
Outside factors are important in any sport. Weather conditions, injuries of key players, referees, travel distance or time zone. Every single element can be crucial when deciding what team to back or what line to take in one NFL game.
Some of those factors are important, and some of them are marginal, but no doubt every single one of them will affect the odds in one way or another.
So let us look at some of those factors and determine if they are really game changing factors or just urban myths among sports bettors.
?Weather conditions
Weather conditions can influence the game of football significantly.
It is one of the most important factors when you choose your winner in a particular football game. Or when you decide whether to play Over or Under at Totals market.
Be aware that some of the NFL teams play in Domes (Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, St. Louis Rams, Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Arizona Cardinals, Dallas Cowboys, and Indianapolis Colts) and weather conditions have no effect in those games.
An interesting fact about “Dome teams”. From 1978 Dome teams held a 0-11 record in Championship games when they played away against “Outdoor teams”.
Other teams play on Stadiums where the weather can influence the curse of the game. So let us look at different weather conditions that can affect the team and player performances.
The hot and sunny days should not effect the predicted lines and performances, right? Well, yes, in general, but you should have some things in mind.
Big and bulky players may get worn down as the game progresses, so the defenses may be more vulnerable near the end of the game. When the defense is more tired, there is a more significant chance for the big plays in the offense.
That means that games that are played in hot and sunny weather should see more points. Those kinds of games should be perfect for Over-play.
When there are rainy or snowy weather conditions, there will be a higher percentage of moisture, and players tend to make more mistakes. In those situations, teams will avoid making risky pass plays, and they will opt for the running game or short passes.
These weather conditions make the playing surface slippery, and there is a higher chance that the game will finish with a lower number of points.
Also, the team that is more accustomed to these weather conditions have a significant advantage over those weather conditions. For example, New England Patriots or Green Bay Packers are the teams that are used to play in harsh weather conditions. While Miami Dolphins or Tampa Bay Buccaneers may suffer on the road when playing in rainy or cold weather.
Wind, on the other hand, affects all teams equally. Wind decreases pass efficiency and give a severe problem to kickers and punters. So this means that all teams in the windy conditions would most probably opt for running plays and short screen passes.
So in the games where the wind is the main factor, it is perhaps the smartest thing to opt for the Under-play at Under/Over market or to choose some WR that is used to run vertical routes and to play Under yards on that player as there will be less deep passes in the windy game than usual.
But you need to be careful here. Data shows that wind will affect the game only if it reaches speeds of 15 mph or more. If the wind is below those numbers, it will not affect the game of football much.
As you see, weather conditions are an extremely important outside factor that can change the course of the game. And it is essential to use those weather information before you decide what team or total you will back in an NFL game.
?Injuries of key players
No doubt, American Football is one of the most dangerous sports in the world due to the nature of the game. It is a contact sport, and players have contacts on every play during the game. In a sport as laborious and physical as football, injuries happen all the time. So the main question is how much those injuries affect the game and the final result?
Recent studies showed that several factors need to be taken into consideration when you look at the injury list for the specific NFL game.
Usually, if a team loses the key player in a critical position (QB, star receiver, or running back), their performance will decline. As you can’t expect from backup players to perform on the same level as starters.
Long-term injuries to starting QB have the most impact on the future results. As it is highly unlikely that the team will reach their full potential in the long run. Also, the injury of a skill-position player can affect the team performance, particularly if that team can’t adjust to the new situation.
But in the long run, there are some contradictory results when you look at the injury list. And the results of teams that have a key player injured or a long list of injured players.
Why? Well, the public tends to overreact on that injury news and to start wagering large sums of money against the teams that have injury problems.
In those cases, bookies adjust the lines, and we often see double-digit favorites in the games that would generally see lower handicaps.
The stats from the last ten years show us that no ultimate and precise pattern can determine the outcome of the game based purely on the injury list.
Knowing that, you should consider the injury list. But this outside factor can’t be your ultimate tool when deciding what team to back.
In the end, every NFL team has a roster of 50+ professional athletes and injury of a few starters can be compensated.
?Traveling from East to West and vice versa
This is also an interesting angle to cover. Does traveling long distances have a negative impact on visiting teams in the NFL? Some studies show a great advantage to the teams that play at the home field against teams that traveled a long way and changed several time zones.
Travel fatigue and jet leg are just some of the negative factors that have a real effect on the human body.
But this travel advantage isn’t that easy and straightforward as it seems. There is a difference whether the team travels from east to west, or from west to east.
In the NFL teams traveling from west to east had a winning percentage of 46.54% compared with 37.98% for teams traveling from east to west. So, where is the catch? Have you ever heard of a circadian advantage? Those are sleep patterns that certain teams can benefit from.
Overall, travel and time of the day are indeed important factors that should be considered when deciding what team to back, as the studies showed that travel fatigue and jet leg are important factors that can influence player’s performance.
?Impact of NFL bye week on team performance
During a long and stressful NFL season, one week of rest looks like a perfect idea.
The main question here is whether the Bye Week makes a difference in winning. Mainly since it’s difficult to isolate it from such a significant number of different elements and factors.
In this case, it is very different. We had some teams that started slow and after bye week turned the things around. Like Panthers in 2013 when they started with a 1-2 record and after a bye week finished the season with 12-4. But also, Redskins were 3-1 before the bye week in 2011. They finished the season with 6-10 record and missed the playoffs that year.
Looking at the stats, since 1990 after a bye week, home teams won 58% of the games. Also, in the last ten years, 52.3% of teams coming off the bye week covered the spread. Those percentages are not impressive at all. And that should be a clear sign that bye week shouldn’t be an important factor in your capping process.
?What’s the bottom line?
According to the recent studies average football, the bettor loses year after year betting on NFL games. Why? Well, most recreational bettors tend to bet with their hearts and not with their brains.
They put hard-earned money on their favorite team or just make the decision to bet on specific outcomes based on a hunch or media manipulation.
To make some money from betting on NFL, amateur bettors should educate themselves and follow some basic ground rules of betting.
They need to have discipline, and to have proper money management. Those are the two most important factors in sports betting. Also, it is important to think outside the box and to use some of the insights we wrote in this article. Take your time, don’t bet blindly and do a bit of research. You will see that it is worth it.
Soon enough you will be able to earn some money from betting on the NFL. And you will enjoy watching the games even more.