Win more bets by betting MLB streaks.
Key Points
– Understanding how to spot streaks is a key to winning when betting MLB streaks.
– Bettors can also win by knowing how to bet when a streak is going to end.
How to Win by Betting MLB Streaks
Baseball, more than any other sport, is a game that is determined by a players’ streaks. Every team that has ever won the world championship can reflect on a season that had both winning and losing streaks.
At some time in their careers, even the most successful candidates for the Cy Young Award will have a stretch of three, four, or even five unsuccessful starts. Every batting champion will experience a run in which they go 2-for-28 or strike out 11 times during a four-game road trip. Bettors can take advantage of these streaks when betting daily MLB props.
This is also true for teams and players that are located at the opposite extreme of the spectrum. During the first two weeks of August, teams that are 30 games out of first place will go on winning streaks of four and five games, while backup catchers who are barely hitting their weight will suddenly hit .700 over a two-week stretch.
Betting on Major League Baseball (MLB) requires not only being aware of these streaks but also factoring them into your handicapping in some way.
BETTORS MUST READ >>> WHY BETTING LINES MOVE
All About the Number “3”
The answer can be found in the number 3. Once a tendency has reached a span of three consecutive games (or starts), it might be a good indicator that a player, or an entire team, is going to embark on a streak.
This is true regardless of whether the trend is moving in an upward or downward direction. When it comes to betting on baseball, following certain statistical streaks has led to betting success.
If you are able to recognize these patterns, you will be able to identify a large number of underdogs throughout the course of a season, including some with money lines of +150 or higher.
When betting on MLB, one of the keys is to consistently find underdogs that offer value. The road divisional underdog, for example, is one that usually offers bettors value. Divisional teams face each other 19 times during a regular season. That familiarity helps an underdog. Keep that in mind as you identify streaks and place bets accordingly.
Betting MLB Streaks – Stats to Focus On
It goes without saying, but you are looking for a team’s winning and/or losing streaks. When a team is winning, it gets contagious. Hitters have more confidence at the plate. Pitchers are more in control.
On the opposite end, when teams are losing nothing seems to go right. Batters can’t buy a hit and pitchers can’t seem to find the strike zone. There is much less confidence in the dugout and it shows. Bettors that can identify these situations can have more success in betting MLB streaks.
Now, it’s not simply the streak itself that bettors are interested in. Look for a few key indicators like team runs scored and team record against a certain opponent. This is especially true as you try to win more late season MLB bets.
A team that is scoring five and six runs per game is likely going to win a lot of games. A sudden surge in scoring is an indicator of a team that is getting hot.
In looking at a certain opponent, it helps to look at a team’s record against that opponent. If they have beaten them consistently – maybe they are 4-0 in the last four games – that can be an indicator that they have a certain team’s number.
Pitching Stats That Matter
Pitching, more than just about anything in baseball, is one of the keys to handicapping games. Looking at a pitcher’s recent ERA is helpful, but it is also worth looking at his ERA compared to his xERA (expected ERA).
A pitcher that has won two of his last three starts and has an ERA of 2.24 would raise an eyebrow. That looks like a dominant pitcher. Then, you look at his xERA and that happens to be 3.98. It’s expected that the pitcher’s ERA should be much higher than 2.24 and the next game could be the one where he gets rocked.
It’s also worth looking at a pitcher’s home runs allowed over the last three games. An increase in homers in those three games would be a red flag for the pitcher and his team.
Another stat to examine is a team’s record against a certain starting pitcher. There might be a team that consistently beats a certain starting pitcher. While the pitcher’s overall record might be great, a certain opponent has a much more favorable record when he is the starting pitcher. Keep that in mind when handicapping a game.
Breaking the Streak
You can really hammer a sportsbook by recognizing streaks and betting accordingly. The other way you can use betting MLB streaks to your advantage is identifying when they will end.
Think about team chemistry and the addition of or the loss of a certain player. It could be multiple players too. Often, these player acquisitions end up messing with a team’s chemistry. Teams have a difficult time as a result.
It’s the same with injuries. Bettors see that a lot as a team has to get by without a key hitter or pitchers. It’s very difficult and if a team is in the midst of a winning streak, one might be able to take advantage by betting on the streak to end.
Any leadership changes or off the field issues can have the same effect. They play with a team’s overall psyche and, as a result, a team doesn’t play up to its ability. That’s if the leadership changes and the off-field issues are negative. Positive changes can have the opposite effect.
One unique situation is the second game of a home series after being on a road trip. Teams come home and play well in front of their home crowd. Maybe they have won four in a row. That second night, though, teams tend to relax since they are at home. Several streaks have been broken on the second night of a home series after being on the road.