Tom Brady and the New England Patriots are at home, and taking on Phillip Rivers and the Chargers. While the Chargers are getting all the talk, the Patriots are a team that has been there and done that. Look for Tom Brady to have a big day as New England wins easily.
It's hard to buck the Chargers with their amazing road record and their fierce pass rush. But the line has come down, and the travel disparity in this one cannot be dismissed. The Patriots have been home for three straight weeks. The Chargers have logged 10,000 miles in that span. Lay the points as New England reaches its eighth straight AFC title game.
Watching L.A.’s defense devour the Ravens’ offense is reason alone to
validate this pick. Then there are the trends: The Chargers have landed
below the total in four of their last five away games, while New England
has done the same in four consecutive home dates.
This is the Chargers' third straight road game, and they're making their
second straight cross-country trip. Philip Rivers has had four subpar
games in a row. Something's not right with him. I don't trust him in
We missed the mark going against the Chargers in Baltimore last Sunday as Los Angeles came up with a tremendous gameplan in a revenge spot against the Ravens. I don’t believe they’ll be so fortunate this Sunday, however, as they stay on the road for a third consecutive week to face the well-rested New England Patriots.
Tom Brady has won a lot of playoff games during his career. Still, even
so, Brady and the Patriots are only 16-18 ATS in his playoff starts, and
this week they're running into a team that's a bad matchup for them.
The Patriots are tough at home, especially in the playoffs and
especially in the divisional round, where they're 11-1 straight up and
7-4-1 ATS. But even though this year's team went 8-0 at home, they just
don't look nearly as crisp as they have in the past
Everybody's waiting for the Patriots dynasty to concede something, but
this team was a fluke Dolphins TD from being the No. 1 seed in the AFC
yet again. The Pats went undefeated at home, and the offense ranked
fifth in yards and fourth in scoring despite a slew of injuries and
The Pats lost an "explosive" threat with Josh Gordon's departure, and that could mean a lot here. The Chargers, who can pressure both the Patriots' secondary and Tom Brady, have won at Seattle, Pittsburgh, KC and Baltimore, and will run the football with some success.
Philip Rivers has gotten the worst of it in meetings against Tom Brady going just 1-7 straight-up. However, this 2018 Chargers squad is the best Rivers has been a part of since the end of the LaDainian Tomlinson era ended. Brady and his offense don't look as sharp or dominant this season, nor does the defense (Pats still 8-0 at home). The Chargers are now 8-1 ATS on the road after Sunday's dominating win at Baltimore. The key here will be the Chargers pressure on the outside edges with Bosa and Ingram. Brady hates to be hit and he also hates the thought of it -- see his Von Miller history and both Giants Super Bowls. I'm on the Chargers with the points.
I love the Chargers here guys. Probably as much as any league release this season. Frankly it is my own opinion the Patriots are riding here a lot on rep. Well I am not at all convinced they win the game let alone clear the number. Is it just me or did Tom Brady legitimately look at times like a 41 year old NFL QB.
I didn't think I was going to get to play this game, but the line movement has pushed this into a solid value on the Patriots -3.5 at home. Brady and company have had several weeks at home while the Chargers have traveled thousands of miles. My number on this game is -4.5 so I'm pretty comfortable fading the public on this one. Lay it!